Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Libertad Asuncion

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rubio NU

7/22/2017

League #252 · Round 1Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion22%

×Draw36%

Rubio NU43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.57

0.93

Libertad Asuncion

0.57

Rubio NU

0.93

Rubio NU creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

0.82

creates per match

0.67

1.18

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.82

Rubio NU

0.67

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.18

Rubio NU

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Rubio NU →

0–022%

0–121%

0–210%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–04%

2–13%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

57%

Libertad Asuncion or Rubio NU

64%

Draw or Rubio NU

78%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

Rubio NU wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

43%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

11%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

61%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

24%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

34%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Rubio NU defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Rubio NU attack 0.67 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

22%

level

36%

Rubio NU scores more

43%

Rubio NU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Santacruz← R. Báez

59'

D. Godoy← I. González

67'

J. Recalde← O. Cardozo

74'

I. Ramírez← S. Aquino

81'

E. Ramos← G. Viera

90+1'

I. Cañete← H. Lusardi

Libertad

Rubio

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Jubero

46'▲D. Santacruz←▼R. Báez

67'▲J. Recalde←▼O. Cardozo

74'▲I. Ramírez←▼S. Aquino

Libertad Asuncion substitutes

SantacruzRecaldeRamírezServínRománOrué

Manager: H. Lisi

59'▲D. Godoy←▼I. González

81'▲E. Ramos←▼G. Viera

90+1'▲I. Cañete←▼H. Lusardi

Rubio NU substitutes

GodoyRamosCañeteValenzuelaIralaEstigarribiaVera