Libertad Asuncion 1–0 General Diaz: Result & Stats

Libertad Asuncion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

General Diaz

4/7/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 11Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Libertad Asuncion63%

×Draw21%

General Diaz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchGeneral Diaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.94

Libertad Asuncion

2.06

General Diaz

0.94

Libertad Asuncion creates 119% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 33 away

1.85

creates per match

1.12

0.76

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.85

General Diaz

1.12

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

0.76

General Diaz

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

General Diaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

84%

Libertad Asuncion or General Diaz

79%

Draw or General Diaz

37%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

39%

General Diaz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

87%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

61%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

34%

General Diaz 1+ goals

61%

General Diaz 2+ goals

24%

General Diaz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

79%

General Diaz (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

General Diaz away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + General Diaz defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

General Diaz attack 1.12 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

63%

level

21%

General Diaz scores more

16%

Libertad Asuncion at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff