General Diaz 0–2 Libertad Asuncion: Result & Stats

General Diaz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

9/13/2020

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 19Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

General Diaz23%

×Draw24%

Libertad Asuncion53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General DiazExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.71

General Diaz

1.04

Libertad Asuncion

1.71

Libertad Asuncion creates 64% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

1.84

1.58

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

General Diaz

1.00

Libertad Asuncion

1.84

allows per match

General Diaz

1.58

Libertad Asuncion

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw

47%

General Diaz or Libertad Asuncion

76%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

77%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+

8%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals

65%

General Diaz 2+ goals

28%

General Diaz 3+ goals

9%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

82%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

51%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)

30%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

General Diaz scores more

23%

level

24%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

53%

Libertad Asuncion at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff