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Libertad Asuncion vs Club River Plate — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
4/20/2019Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 17Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Libertad Asuncion58%
×Draw24%
Club River Plate18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.67
Club River Plate
0.80

Libertad Asuncion creates 109% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.85
Club River Plate
0.84

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.76
Club River Plate
1.48

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
82%
Libertad Asuncion or Club River Plate
76%
Draw or Club River Plate
42%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
32%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
81%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
50%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
23%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
55%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
19%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
77%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + Club River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Club River Plate attack 0.84 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
58%
level
24%
Club River Plate scores more
18%

Libertad Asuncion at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Club River Plate

Libertad Asuncion beat Club River Plate 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción).