Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Libertad Asuncion vs 12 de Octubre — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
8/8/2020Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Libertad Asuncion55%
×Draw25%
12 de Octubre20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.60
12 de Octubre
0.85

Libertad Asuncion creates 88% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.85
12 de Octubre
0.94

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.76
12 de Octubre
1.35

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
80%
Libertad Asuncion or 12 de Octubre
75%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
45%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
29%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
80%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
47%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
22%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
57%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
21%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
73%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
55%
level
25%
12 de Octubre scores more
20%

Libertad Asuncion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Libertad Asuncion 1–1 12 de Octubre

Libertad Asuncion and 12 de Octubre drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz in Asunción.