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Liberia vs Mauritania — Friendlies 2026

Liberia
Liberia
CANC
13:00
Mauritania
Mauritania
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liberia42%
×Draw29%
Mauritania29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.21
Mauritania
0.94

Liberia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.00
Mauritania
0.50

allows per match

Liberia
1.38
Mauritania
1.43

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
71%
Liberia or Mauritania
71%
Draw or Mauritania
58%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
18%
Mauritania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
70%
Liberia 2+ goals
34%
Liberia 3+ goals
12%
Mauritania 1+ goals
61%
Mauritania 2+ goals
24%
Mauritania 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
60%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.00 + Mauritania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mauritania attack 0.50 + Liberia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liberia scores more
42%
level
29%
Mauritania scores more
29%

Liberia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liberia vs Mauritania — Match Preview

Liberia face Mauritania on March 27, 2026 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.