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Liberia vs Libya — Friendlies 2026

Liberia
Liberia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Libya
Libya
P. Balde 82'
O. Dorley 76'
Ezoo El Mariamy 45'
Al Musrati 44'
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalStade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liberia26%
×Draw26%
Libya48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.00
Libya
1.48

Libya creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.00
Libya
1.58

allows per match

Liberia
1.38
Libya
1.00

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Libya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Libya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
52%
Liberia or Libya
74%
Draw or Libya
74%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
9%
Libya wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
63%
Liberia 2+ goals
26%
Liberia 3+ goals
8%
Libya 1+ goals
77%
Libya 2+ goals
43%
Libya 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
35%
Libya (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Libya away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.00 + Libya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Libya attack 1.58 + Liberia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Liberia scores more
26%
level
26%
Libya scores more
48%

Libya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Al Musrati↳ Muhannad Etoo
45'
Ezoo El Mariamy↳ I. Tajouri
51'
A. Saleh
76'
O. Dorley↳ M. Pabai
82'
P. Balde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liberia 2 – 2 Libya

Liberia and Libya drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

Goals: Al Musrati (44'), Ezoo El Mariamy (45'), O. Dorley (76'), P. Balde (82').

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.