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Liberia vs Benin — Friendlies 2026

Liberia
Liberia
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Benin
Benin
3/24/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Mardan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liberia34%
×Draw28%
Benin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.15
Benin
1.26

Benin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.00
Benin
1.14

allows per match

Liberia
1.38
Benin
1.29

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Benin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Benin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
61%
Liberia or Benin
72%
Draw or Benin
66%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
14%
Benin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
68%
Liberia 2+ goals
32%
Liberia 3+ goals
11%
Benin 1+ goals
72%
Benin 2+ goals
36%
Benin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
46%
Benin (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Benin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.00 + Benin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Benin attack 1.14 + Liberia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liberia scores more
34%
level
28%
Benin scores more
39%

Benin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Benin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liberia vs Benin

Benin beat Liberia 4-0 in Friendlies on March 24, 2022.

The match was played at Mardan Stadyumu in Antalya.