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Benfica Luanda vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2024

Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
FT
1 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
3/22/2015GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Benfica Luanda21%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Luanda
0.75
Petro de Luanda
1.32

Petro de Luanda creates 76% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Petro de Luanda
1.65

allows per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Petro de Luanda
0.50

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw
50%
Benfica Luanda or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
79%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
6%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
53%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
17%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
4%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
73%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
38%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
30%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Petro de Luanda attack 1.65 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more
21%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
50%

Petro de Luanda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Benfica Luanda 1–1 Petro de Luanda

Benfica Luanda and Petro de Luanda drew 1-1 in Girabola on March 22, 2015.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.