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liaoning hongyun FC vs Yanbian Tigers FC — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
4/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 8Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC36%
×Draw28%
Yanbian Tigers FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.19
Yanbian Tigers FC
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Yanbian Tigers FC
0.87

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Yanbian Tigers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
64%
liaoning hongyun FC or Yanbian Tigers FC
72%
Draw or Yanbian Tigers FC
64%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
15%
Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
70%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
33%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
12%
Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
70%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
33%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
50%
Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Yanbian Tigers FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 0.87 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
36%

liaoning hongyun FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 1–0 Yanbian Tigers FC

liaoning hongyun FC beat Yanbian Tigers FC 1-0 in League One on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang).