liaoning hongyun FC 1–1 Xinjiang Tianshan

liaoning hongyun FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

8/4/2019

League One · Round 20Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC51%

×Draw24%

Xinjiang Tianshan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

liaoning hongyun FCExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.06

liaoning hongyun FC

1.66

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.06

liaoning hongyun FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

1.17

creates per match

0.63

1.50

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.17

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.50

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw

76%

liaoning hongyun FC or Xinjiang Tianshan

76%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

49%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

27%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

81%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

49%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

23%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

65%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

29%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

68%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

51%

level

24%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

24%

liaoning hongyun FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff