liaoning hongyun FC 0–3 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

liaoning hongyun FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

3/30/2019

League One · Round 3Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC29%

×Draw26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

liaoning hongyun FCExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Changan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.46

liaoning hongyun FC

1.11

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

1.17

creates per match

1.42

1.50

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.17

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.42

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.50

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw

55%

liaoning hongyun FC or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

74%

Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

71%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

11%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

67%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

30%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

10%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

43%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

39%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

29%

level

26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

45%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff