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liaoning hongyun FC vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
6/1/2019League OneLeague One · Round 12Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC32%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.39
Qingdao Huanghai
1.67

Qingdao Huanghai creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Qingdao Huanghai
1.84

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Qingdao Huanghai
1.61

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
56%
liaoning hongyun FC or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
68%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
14%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
75%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
40%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
16%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
81%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
50%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
42%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.84 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
32%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
44%

Qingdao Huanghai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: liaoning hongyun FC vs Qingdao Huanghai

Qingdao Huanghai beat liaoning hongyun FC 3-2 in League One on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.