liaoning hongyun FC 2–4 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

liaoning hongyun FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

9/22/2019

League One · Round 26Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC36%

×Draw26%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

liaoning hongyun FCExpected goals in this matchHeilongjiang Lava Spring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

liaoning hongyun FC

1.28

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

1.17

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.17

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.12

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.50

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw

63%

liaoning hongyun FC or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

74%

Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

64%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

16%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

72%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

37%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

14%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

73%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

38%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

49%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

36%

level

26%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

37%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff