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liaoning hongyun FC vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
7/11/2018League OneLeague One · Round 12Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC47%
×Draw25%
Dalian Transcendence28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.58
Dalian Transcendence
1.15

liaoning hongyun FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
72%
liaoning hongyun FC or Dalian Transcendence
75%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
53%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
24%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
79%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
47%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
21%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
68%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
32%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
63%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
47%
level
25%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
28%

liaoning hongyun FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 1–0 Dalian Transcendence

liaoning hongyun FC beat Dalian Transcendence 1-0 in League One on July 11, 2018.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang).