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liaoning hongyun FC vs Changchun Yatai — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
9/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 25Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC28%
×Draw24%
Changchun Yatai48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.24
Changchun Yatai
1.70

Changchun Yatai creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Changchun Yatai
1.90

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Changchun Yatai
1.31

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
52%
liaoning hongyun FC or Changchun Yatai
76%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
72%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
12%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
71%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
35%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
13%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
82%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
51%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
37%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
28%
level
24%
Changchun Yatai scores more
48%

Changchun Yatai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 1–2 Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat liaoning hongyun FC 2-1 in League One on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.