liaoning hongyun FC 0–0 Beijing Baxy

liaoning hongyun FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Baxy

4/6/2019

League One · Round 4Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC38%

×Draw26%

Beijing Baxy36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

liaoning hongyun FCExpected goals in this matchBeijing Baxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.33

liaoning hongyun FC

1.38

Beijing Baxy

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 70 away

1.19

creates per match

1.09

1.56

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.19

Beijing Baxy

1.09

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.56

Beijing Baxy

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Beijing Baxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw

64%

liaoning hongyun FC or Beijing Baxy

74%

Draw or Beijing Baxy

62%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

18%

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

75%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

40%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

16%

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

74%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

38%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

52%

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.19 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Beijing Baxy attack 1.09 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

38%

level

26%

Beijing Baxy scores more

36%

liaoning hongyun FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff