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Leyton Orient W vs AFC Bournemouth W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leyton Orient W
Leyton Orient W
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 5
AFC Bournemouth W
AFC Bournemouth W
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leyton Orient W8%
×Draw10%
AFC Bournemouth W82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient W
1.18
AFC Bournemouth W
3.82

AFC Bournemouth W creates 224% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient W
1.25
AFC Bournemouth W
3.89

allows per match

Leyton Orient W
3.75
AFC Bournemouth W
1.11

finishing

Leyton Orient W+0.00on par
AFC Bournemouth W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient W ↓

AFC Bournemouth W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Leyton Orient W or draw
18%
Leyton Orient W or AFC Bournemouth W
90%
Draw or AFC Bournemouth W
92%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient W wins by 2+
3%
AFC Bournemouth W wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Leyton Orient W 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient W 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient W 3+ goals
12%
AFC Bournemouth W 1+ goals
98%
AFC Bournemouth W 2+ goals
88%
AFC Bournemouth W 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient W (draw refunded)
9%
AFC Bournemouth W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

AFC Bournemouth W away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient W attack 1.25 + AFC Bournemouth W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

AFC Bournemouth W attack 3.89 + Leyton Orient W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Leyton Orient W scores more
8%
level
10%
AFC Bournemouth W scores more
82%

AFC Bournemouth W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "AFC Bournemouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leyton Orient W vs AFC Bournemouth W

AFC Bournemouth W beat Leyton Orient W 7-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.