Leyton Orient W 2–1 Actonians W: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient W

2 – 1

Actonians W

12/13/2020

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMile End Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leyton Orient W21%

×Draw17%

Actonians W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton Orient WExpected goals in this matchActonians W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.94

Leyton Orient W

1.69

Actonians W

2.94

Actonians W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

2.13

3.75

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Leyton Orient W

1.25

Actonians W

2.13

allows per match

Leyton Orient W

3.75

Actonians W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient W+0.00on par

Actonians W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient W ↓

Actonians W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Leyton Orient W or draw

38%

Leyton Orient W or Actonians W

83%

Draw or Actonians W

79%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient W wins by 2+

Actonians W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Leyton Orient W 1+ goals

82%

Leyton Orient W 2+ goals

50%

Leyton Orient W 3+ goals

24%

Actonians W 1+ goals

95%

Actonians W 2+ goals

79%

Actonians W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient W (draw refunded)

25%

Actonians W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Actonians W away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient W attack 1.25 + Actonians W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Actonians W attack 2.13 + Leyton Orient W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leyton Orient W scores more

21%

level

17%

Actonians W scores more

62%

Actonians W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Actonians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff