Leyton Orient 0–0 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

9/28/2024

League One · Round 8Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leyton Orient33%

×Draw29%

Wrexham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.06

Wrexham

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 23 away

1.30

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.30

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

62%

Leyton Orient or Wrexham

71%

Draw or Wrexham

67%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Wrexham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

65%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Wrexham 1+ goals

68%

Wrexham 2+ goals

32%

Wrexham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

47%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

level

29%

Wrexham scores more

38%

Wrexham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Z. Hemming

Leyton Orient · G

7.5

Match Events

19'

28'

41'

45+2'

51'

56'

59'

65'

P. Mullin← J. Marriott

65'

S. Fletcher← O. Palmer

70'

J. Graham← J. Donley

88'

D. Scarr← M. Cleworth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonWrexham

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots6

1Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots6

1On Target2

7Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

490Total Passes346

379Accurate Passes236

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2