Leyton Orient 4–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swindon Town

H. Smith 82', 64'

A. Drinan 59', 19'

H. McKirdy 42'

12/7/2021

League Two · Round 20The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient40%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.31

Leyton Orient

1.43

Swindon Town

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 139 away

1.41

creates per match

1.49

1.13

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

66%

Leyton Orient or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

19%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

76%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

42%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

40%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Smith

Leyton Orient · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

Craig Clay

19'

A. Drinan↳ T. James

42'

H. McKirdy↳ E. Iandolo

45+2'

Daniel Kemp

56'

Omar Beckles

59'

A. Drinan↳ T. Archibald

64'

Harry McKirdy

64'

H. Smith↳ T. Archibald

72'

J. Williams← R. Crichlow

75'

J. Mitchell-Lawson← H. McKirdy

76'

82'

83'

90+2'

90'

R. Sotiriou← A. Drinan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonSwindon

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots9

3Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots9

6On Target3

1Off Target6

1Blocked0

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

340Total Passes554

233Accurate Passes459

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides5