Leyton Orient 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

J. Donley 63'

1/4/2025

League One · Round 25Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Leyton Orient44%

×Draw28%

Shrewsbury28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Leyton Orient

1.34

Shrewsbury

1.02

Leyton Orient creates 31% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 152 away

1.30

creates per match

0.86

1.18

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.30

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Shrewsbury

72%

Draw or Shrewsbury

56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

39%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

64%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

27%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

44%

level

28%

Shrewsbury scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Currie

Leyton Orient · D

8.7

Match Events

34'

D. Jaiyesimi← O. ONeill

61'

J. Rossiter← A. Gilliead

63'

J. Donley↳ C. Kelman

65'

S. Clare← D. Pratley

71'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← A. Pierre

72'

C. Winchester← J. Shipley

72'

G. Lloyd← J. Marquis

78'

Luca Hoole

80'

F. Ojo← L. Castledine

89'

Jamie Donley

90+1'

Carl Winchester

90'

J. Sweeney← S. Perkins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonShrewsbury

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots8

9Corners7

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target0

6Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

514Total Passes228

408Accurate Passes117

79%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0