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Leyton Orient vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
14:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
10/3/2026League OneLeague One · Round 9Brisbane Road
Big match
48%
Plymouth
model favours
28%24%48%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leyton Orient28%
×Draw24%
Plymouth48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.20
Plymouth
1.66

Plymouth creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
52%
Leyton Orient or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
72%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
11%
Plymouth wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
70%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
34%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%
Plymouth 1+ goals
81%
Plymouth 2+ goals
49%
Plymouth 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
37%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
28%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
48%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 72% over 2.5)
  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
53%Possession49%
71%Pass accuracy68%
11.3Shots13.5
1.12xGBiggest gap2.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientPlymouth

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Leyton Orient
0
Draws
7
Plymouth
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
1–30–11–00–23–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leyton Orient host Plymouth

October 3, 2026: Leyton Orient take on Plymouth in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leyton Orient host Plymouth at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.