Leyton Orient 1–2 Luton: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

O. Palmer 79'

D. Hylton 74'

C. McGeehan 30'

10/15/2016

League Two · Round 13Matchroom Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leyton Orient41%

×Draw28%

Luton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Leyton Orient

1.27

Luton

1.06

Leyton Orient creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 16 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Luton

1.00

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Luton

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Luton

72%

Draw or Luton

59%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Luton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Luton 1+ goals

65%

Luton 2+ goals

29%

Luton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

57%

Luton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Luton away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Luton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Luton attack 1.00 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

41%

level

28%

Luton scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

C. McGeehan

68'

P. McCallum← J. Simpson

74'

D. Hylton↳ J. Marriott

76'

A. Dunne← N. Atangana

79'

O. Palmer↳ P. McCallum

83'

J. Smith← C. McGeehan

90'

J. Mullins← J. Cook

90+2'

J. Gray← A. Gilliead

Leyton

Luton

1

6

44

2

3

16

10

▼

Cook

8

⚽

▼

McGeehan

9

⚽

Hylton

15

▼

Gilliead

14

A

1

46

16

3

6

37

11

15

▼

Atangana

22

Semedo

27

▼

Simpson

9

⚽

Palmer

Manager: A. Cavasin

68'▲P. McCallum←▼J. Simpson

76'▲A. Dunne←▼N. Atangana

Leyton Orient substitutes

10McCallum5Dunne18N'Nomo21Bowery24Sargeant25Pollock33Benedičič

Manager: N. Jones

83'▲J. Smith←▼C. McGeehan

90'▲J. Mullins←▼J. Cook

90+2'▲J. Gray←▼A. Gilliead

Luton substitutes

4Smith5Mullins7Gray36Justin17Ruddock20Vassell31King