Leyton Orient 0–2 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Huddersfield

C. Marshall 90'

M. Helik 26'

11/26/2024

League One · Round 11Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leyton Orient31%

×Draw25%

Huddersfield44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.50

Leyton Orient

1.22

Huddersfield

1.50

Huddersfield creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

1.68

1.31

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Huddersfield

1.68

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Huddersfield

1.26

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Huddersfield-0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

56%

Leyton Orient or Huddersfield

75%

Draw or Huddersfield

69%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

34%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

78%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

44%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

41%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Huddersfield defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Huddersfield attack 1.68 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

31%

level

25%

Huddersfield scores more

44%

Huddersfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Helik

Huddersfield · D

8.2

Match Events

26'

M. Helik↳ M. Miller

46'

D. Jaiyesimi← S. Perkins

46'

J. Simpson← D. Happe

46'

D. Ball← L. Warrington

46'

J. Ruffels← M. Miller

56'

F. Ladapo← B. Radulović

63'

Omar Beckles

64'

Josh KoromaMissed penalty

65'

Josh Keeley

68'

B. Cooper← T. James

68'

J. Graham← J. Brown

76'

J. Hogg← B. Wiles

76'

C. Marshall← J. Koroma

77'

B. Spencer← O. Turton

86'

Michał Helik

90'

C. Marshall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonHuddersfield

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots14

8Corners4

7Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target6

5Off Target4

3Blocked4

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

404Total Passes385

284Accurate Passes268

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1