Leyton Orient 1–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

J. Wright 68'

8/3/2019

League Two · Round 1The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Leyton Orient44%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Leyton Orient

1.40

Cheltenham

1.09

Leyton Orient creates 28% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 95 away

1.41

creates per match

1.06

1.13

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

71%

Leyton Orient or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

30%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

60%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

44%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

29%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

L. Varney

13'

S. Sargeant← D. Brill

63'

C. Hussey← J. Debayo

67'

G. Reilly← T. Campbell

68'

J. Wright↳ C. Wilkinson

72'

R. Ince

75'

A. Addai← M. Sheaf

84'

J. Alabi← C. Wilkinson

90+5'

L. Dennis← J. Maguire-Drew

Leyton

Cheltenham

1

4

5

2

15

17

▼

Debayo

23

Ince

11

Broom

14

▼

Sheaf

32

Varney

10

▼

Campbell

1

▼

6

2

5

15

44

⚽

Wright

8

Clay

16

Brophy

10

▼

Maguire-D

9

A

▼

Wilkinson

19

Angol

Manager: R. Embleton

13'▲S. Sargeant←▼D. Brill

84'▲J. Alabi←▼C. Wilkinson

90+5'▲L. Dennis←▼J. Maguire-Drew

Leyton Orient substitutes

12Sargeant27Alabi17Dennis18Harrold4Gorman20Sotiriou14Judd

Manager: M. Duff

63'▲C. Hussey←▼J. Debayo

67'▲G. Reilly←▼T. Campbell

75'▲A. Addai←▼M. Sheaf

Cheltenham substitutes

3Hussey20Reilly16Addai22Lovett7Thomas21Doyle-Hayes8Clements