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Cheltenham vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
12/16/2023League OneLeague One · Round 22Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham36%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 71 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
63%
Cheltenham or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
73%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
73%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
38%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
49%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
36%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Cheltenham 2-1 in League One on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.