Leyton Orient 3–1 Bromley: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bromley

M. Bonne 77'

J. Koroma 59'

J. McAnuff 56'

J. Goddard 41'

11/17/2018

League #43 · Round 24Matchroom Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leyton Orient36%

×Draw30%

Bromley34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.02

Leyton Orient

1.05

Bromley

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

1.05

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.00

Bromley

1.05

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.00

Bromley

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Bromley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

66%

Leyton Orient or Bromley

70%

Draw or Bromley

64%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Bromley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

65%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

28%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Bromley 1+ goals

64%

Bromley 2+ goals

27%

Bromley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

51%

Bromley (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.00 + Bromley defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bromley attack 1.05 + Leyton Orient defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

36%

level

30%

Bromley scores more

34%

Leyton Orient at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

J. Goddard

43'

D. Happe← M. Ekpiteta

56'

J. McAnuff

59'

J. Koroma

66'

Joan Luque← A. Dunne

73'

J. Goodman← J. Quigley

76'

J. Brophy← D. Gorman

77'

M. Bonne

89'

J. Alabi← J. Dayton

Leyton

Bromley

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: J. Edinburgh

43'▲D. Happe←▼M. Ekpiteta

76'▲J. Brophy←▼D. Gorman

89'▲J. Alabi←▼J. Dayton

Leyton Orient substitutes

HappeBrophyAlabiHarroldSargeant

Manager: N. Smith

66'▲Joan Luque←▼A. Dunne

73'▲J. Goodman←▼J. Quigley

Bromley substitutes

LuqueGoodmanEnverRooneyOkoh

League #43: Leyton Orient 3–1 Bromley

Leyton Orient beat Bromley 3-1 in League #43 on November 17, 2018.

Goals: J. Goddard (41'), J. McAnuff (56'), J. Koroma (59'), M. Bonne (77').

The match was played at Matchroom Stadium (London).

Leyton Orient vs Bromley — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Leyton Orient 3–1 Bromley