Leyton Orient 0–0 Bradford: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bradford

12/14/2019

League Two · Round 21The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient41%

×Draw27%

Bradford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Leyton Orient

1.32

Bradford

1.14

Leyton Orient creates 16% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 139 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

68%

Leyton Orient or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

59%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

19%

Bradford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

73%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Bradford 1+ goals

68%

Bradford 2+ goals

32%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

56%

Bradford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bradford attack 1.15 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

41%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

32%

Leyton Orient at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

P. O'Connor

Bradford · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

Anthony O'Connor

69'

H. Pritchard← C. Taylor

79'

M. Palmer← J. Reeves

81'

J. Brophy← J. Maguire-Drew

86'

S. McCartan← A. Oteh

87'

Josh Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonBradford

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots7

5Corners0

16Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots7

0On Target3

3Off Target2

10Blocked2

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

302Total Passes385

183Accurate Passes238

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1