Bradford 2–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

A. Sarcevic 79', 33'

O. O'Neill 43'

3/7/2026

League One · Round 36Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bradford54%

×Draw24%

Leyton Orient21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.97

Bradford

1.70

Leyton Orient

0.97

Bradford creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.01

0.92

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Bradford

1.57

Leyton Orient

1.01

allows per match

Bradford

0.92

Leyton Orient

1.82

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Leyton Orient-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

79%

Bradford or Leyton Orient

76%

Draw or Leyton Orient

46%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

30%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

82%

Bradford 2+ goals

51%

Bradford 3+ goals

24%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

62%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

25%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

72%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Leyton Orient defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Leyton Orient attack 1.01 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bradford scores more

54%

level

24%

Leyton Orient scores more

21%

Bradford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Sarcevic

Bradford · F

8.9

Match Events

26'

Josh Koroma

33'

A. Sarcevic↳ J. Neufville

40'

F. Fawunmi← J. Koroma

43'

44'

53'

53'

54'

59'

61'

61'

67'

71'

P. Mullin← E. Wheatley

71'

S. Humphrys← B. Pointon

74'

T. Bakinson← D. Levitt

75'

Aden Baldwin

79'

A. Sarcevic↳ S. Humphrys

86'

Antoni Sarcevic

87'

Paul Mullin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordLeyton

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots5

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.45

11Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots5

7On Target1

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

16Inside Box1

1Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

417Total Passes253

274Accurate Passes129

66%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls16

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1