Leyton Orient 0–0 Barrow: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barrow

1/14/2023

League Two · Round 27Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw27%

Barrow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Leyton Orient

1.42

Barrow

1.06

Leyton Orient creates 34% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 138 away

1.41

creates per match

0.99

1.13

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Barrow

73%

Draw or Barrow

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

22%

Barrow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

76%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Barrow 1+ goals

65%

Barrow 2+ goals

29%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

62%

Barrow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barrow attack 0.99 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

27%

Barrow scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Farman

Barrow · G

8.0

Match Events

22'

30'

49'

64'

64'

S. Duke-McKenna← G. Moncur

72'

E. Newby← B. Whitfield

75'

H. Smith← C. Kelman

75'

C. Clay← I. El Mizouni

79'

J. Kay← B. Waters

87'

R. Bennett← R. Gotts

88'

J. Sweeney← S. Duke-McKenna

90+4'

Thomas James

90+1'

Thomas James

90+4'

Thomas James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonBarrow

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots11

3Corners7

11Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target2

3Off Target5

6Blocked4

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

517Total Passes260

394Accurate Passes141

76%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2