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Leyton Orient vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Barnsley
Barnsley
4/18/2025League OneLeague One · Round 43Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Leyton Orient36%
×Draw26%
Barnsley38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.31
Barnsley
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 118 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.15
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
62%
Leyton Orient or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
64%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
16%
Barnsley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
73%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
38%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
48%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
36%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
38%

Barnsley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Leyton Orient 4–3 Barnsley

Leyton Orient beat Barnsley 4-3 in League One on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.