Lexington 0–0 Northern Colorado: Result & Stats

Lexington

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Colorado

3/10/2024

USL League One · Round 1Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lexington37%

×Draw26%

Northern Colorado37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LexingtonExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.37

Lexington

1.38

Northern Colorado

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

1.59

creates per match

1.26

1.48

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Lexington

1.59

Northern Colorado

1.26

allows per match

Lexington

1.48

Northern Colorado

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

Northern Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lexington or draw

63%

Lexington or Northern Colorado

74%

Draw or Northern Colorado

63%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+

17%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals

75%

Lexington 2+ goals

40%

Lexington 3+ goals

16%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

75%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

40%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)

50%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.59 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Lexington defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lexington scores more

37%

level

26%

Northern Colorado scores more

37%

Lexington at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff