Lexington 7–1 Central Valley Fuego: Result & Stats

Lexington

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Central Valley Fuego

9/18/2024

USL League One · Round 11Lexington Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lexington46%

×Draw23%

Central Valley Fuego31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LexingtonExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.43

Lexington

1.77

Central Valley Fuego

1.43

Lexington creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

1.59

creates per match

1.38

1.48

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Lexington

1.59

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Lexington

1.48

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lexington or draw

69%

Lexington or Central Valley Fuego

77%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

54%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+

24%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals

83%

Lexington 2+ goals

53%

Lexington 3+ goals

26%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

76%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

42%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)

59%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.59 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Lexington defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lexington scores more

46%

level

23%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

31%

Lexington at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff