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Lexington II vs Kings Hammer — USL League Two 2026

Lexington II
Lexington II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
6/25/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 14Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lexington II59%
×Draw23%
Kings Hammer18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lexington II
1.77
Kings Hammer
0.84

Lexington II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lexington II
1.67
Kings Hammer
0.86

allows per match

Lexington II
0.83
Kings Hammer
1.86

finishing

Lexington II+0.00on par
Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington II ↓

Kings Hammer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lexington II or draw
82%
Lexington II or Kings Hammer
77%
Draw or Kings Hammer
41%

Winning margin

Lexington II wins by 2+
34%
Kings Hammer wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lexington II 1+ goals
83%
Lexington II 2+ goals
53%
Lexington II 3+ goals
26%
Kings Hammer 1+ goals
57%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
21%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lexington II (draw refunded)
77%
Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington II attack 1.67 + Kings Hammer defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kings Hammer attack 0.86 + Lexington II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lexington II scores more
59%
level
23%
Kings Hammer scores more
18%

Lexington II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lexington II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lexington II vs Kings Hammer

Lexington II beat Kings Hammer 2-1 in USL League Two on June 25, 2025.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky.