Lewes W 1–3 Manchester United W: Result & Stats

Lewes W

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United W

3/19/2023

FA Women's Cup · Quarter-finalsThe Dripping Pan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lewes W31%

×Draw22%

Manchester United W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lewes WExpected goals in this matchManchester United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.02

Lewes W

1.60

Manchester United W

2.02

Manchester United W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

2.80

1.25

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Lewes W

2.50

Manchester United W

2.80

allows per match

Lewes W

1.25

Manchester United W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewes W+0.00on par

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewes W ↓

Manchester United W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Lewes W or draw

52%

Lewes W or Manchester United W

78%

Draw or Manchester United W

69%

Winning margin

Lewes W wins by 2+

15%

Manchester United W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lewes W 1+ goals

80%

Lewes W 2+ goals

47%

Lewes W 3+ goals

22%

Manchester United W 1+ goals

87%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

60%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lewes W (draw refunded)

39%

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lewes W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lewes W attack 2.50 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Lewes W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lewes W scores more

31%

level

22%

Manchester United W scores more

48%

Manchester United W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff