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Lewes W vs Crystal Palace W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Lewes W
Lewes W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Dripping Pan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lewes W71%
×Draw17%
Crystal Palace W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewes W
2.50
Crystal Palace W
0.94

Lewes W creates 166% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lewes W
2.50
Crystal Palace W
0.63

allows per match

Lewes W
1.25
Crystal Palace W
2.50

finishing

Lewes W+0.00on par
Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewes W ↓

Crystal Palace W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lewes W or draw
88%
Lewes W or Crystal Palace W
83%
Draw or Crystal Palace W
29%

Winning margin

Lewes W wins by 2+
49%
Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lewes W 1+ goals
92%
Lewes W 2+ goals
71%
Lewes W 3+ goals
45%
Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
61%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
24%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lewes W (draw refunded)
85%
Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewes W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewes W attack 2.50 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Crystal Palace W attack 0.63 + Lewes W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lewes W scores more
71%
level
17%
Crystal Palace W scores more
12%

Lewes W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Lewes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Lewes W 0–1 Crystal Palace W

Crystal Palace W beat Lewes W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at The Dripping Pan in Lewes.