Lewes W 6–1 Cardiff City W: Result & Stats

Lewes W

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cardiff City W

2/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 5th RoundThe Dripping Pan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lewes W55%

×Draw19%

Cardiff City W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lewes WExpected goals in this matchCardiff City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.82

Lewes W

2.65

Cardiff City W

1.82

Lewes W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.40

1.25

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Lewes W

2.50

Cardiff City W

2.40

allows per match

Lewes W

1.25

Cardiff City W

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewes W+0.00on par

Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewes W ↓

Cardiff City W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Lewes W or draw

74%

Lewes W or Cardiff City W

81%

Draw or Cardiff City W

45%

Winning margin

Lewes W wins by 2+

35%

Cardiff City W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lewes W 1+ goals

93%

Lewes W 2+ goals

74%

Lewes W 3+ goals

48%

Cardiff City W 1+ goals

84%

Cardiff City W 2+ goals

54%

Cardiff City W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lewes W (draw refunded)

68%

Cardiff City W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lewes W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lewes W attack 2.50 + Cardiff City W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.65

Cardiff City W attack 2.40 + Lewes W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lewes W scores more

55%

level

19%

Cardiff City W scores more

26%

Lewes W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lewes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff