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Lewes W vs Billericay Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Lewes W
Lewes W
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
1/26/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundThe Dripping Pan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lewes W30%
×Draw19%
Billericay Town W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewes W
2.00
Billericay Town W
2.63

Billericay Town W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lewes W
2.50
Billericay Town W
4.00

allows per match

Lewes W
1.25
Billericay Town W
1.50

finishing

Lewes W+0.00on par
Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewes W ↓

Billericay Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Lewes W or draw
49%
Lewes W or Billericay Town W
81%
Draw or Billericay Town W
70%

Winning margin

Lewes W wins by 2+
15%
Billericay Town W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lewes W 1+ goals
86%
Lewes W 2+ goals
59%
Lewes W 3+ goals
32%
Billericay Town W 1+ goals
93%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
73%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Lewes W (draw refunded)
37%
Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewes W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Billericay Town W away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewes W attack 2.50 + Billericay Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Billericay Town W attack 4.00 + Lewes W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lewes W scores more
30%
level
19%
Billericay Town W scores more
51%

Billericay Town W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewes W vs Billericay Town W

Lewes W and Billericay Town W drew 0-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at The Dripping Pan in Lewes, East Sussex.