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Lewes W vs AFC Sudbury Ladies — FA Women's Cup 2019

Lewes W
Lewes W
FT
3 – 0
AFC Sudbury Ladies
AFC Sudbury Ladies
11/24/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Dripping Pan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lewes W70%
×Draw16%
AFC Sudbury Ladies14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewes W
2.92
AFC Sudbury Ladies
1.29

Lewes W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lewes W
2.50
AFC Sudbury Ladies
1.33

allows per match

Lewes W
1.25
AFC Sudbury Ladies
3.33

finishing

Lewes W+0.00on par
AFC Sudbury Ladies+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewes W ↓

AFC Sudbury Ladies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lewes W or draw
86%
Lewes W or AFC Sudbury Ladies
84%
Draw or AFC Sudbury Ladies
30%

Winning margin

Lewes W wins by 2+
50%
AFC Sudbury Ladies wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lewes W 1+ goals
94%
Lewes W 2+ goals
78%
Lewes W 3+ goals
55%
AFC Sudbury Ladies 1+ goals
72%
AFC Sudbury Ladies 2+ goals
37%
AFC Sudbury Ladies 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lewes W (draw refunded)
83%
AFC Sudbury Ladies (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewes W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

AFC Sudbury Ladies away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewes W attack 2.50 + AFC Sudbury Ladies defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

AFC Sudbury Ladies attack 1.33 + Lewes W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lewes W scores more
70%
level
16%
AFC Sudbury Ladies scores more
14%

Lewes W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lewes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewes W vs AFC Sudbury Ladies

Lewes W beat AFC Sudbury Ladies 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at The Dripping Pan in Lewes, East Sussex.