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Lewart vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
2 – 0
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart40%
×Draw24%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.61
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
63%
Lewart or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
76%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
60%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
20%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
80%
Lewart 2+ goals
48%
Lewart 3+ goals
22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
79%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
45%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
52%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lewart scores more
40%
level
24%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
37%

Lewart at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 2–0 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Lewart beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.