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Lewart vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
0 – 2
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lewart17%
×Draw22%
Wisła Puławy61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
0.90
Wisła Puławy
1.90

Wisła Puławy creates 111% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
39%
Lewart or Wisła Puławy
78%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
83%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
6%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
59%
Lewart 2+ goals
23%
Lewart 3+ goals
6%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
85%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
56%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
22%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.90

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lewart scores more
17%
level
22%
Wisła Puławy scores more
61%

Wisła Puławy at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewart vs Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Lewart 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.