Lewart 2–1 Wisła Kraków II: Result & Stats

Lewart

FT

2 – 1

Wisła Kraków II

10/31/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lewart35%

×Draw23%

Wisła Kraków II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LewartExpected goals in this matchWisła Kraków II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.72

Lewart

1.57

Wisła Kraków II

1.72

Wisła Kraków II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.74

1.70

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lewart

1.14

Wisła Kraków II

1.74

allows per match

Lewart

1.70

Wisła Kraków II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Wisła Kraków II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lewart or draw

58%

Lewart or Wisła Kraków II

77%

Draw or Wisła Kraków II

65%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+

17%

Wisła Kraków II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals

79%

Lewart 2+ goals

46%

Lewart 3+ goals

21%

Wisła Kraków II 1+ goals

82%

Wisła Kraków II 2+ goals

51%

Wisła Kraków II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)

46%

Wisła Kraków II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Wisła Kraków II away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Wisła Kraków II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Wisła Kraków II attack 1.74 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lewart scores more

35%

level

23%

Wisła Kraków II scores more

42%

Wisła Kraków II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisła Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff