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Lewart vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
0 – 6
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
10/5/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart30%
×Draw25%
Star Starachowice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.21
Star Starachowice
1.55

Star Starachowice creates 28% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
55%
Lewart or Star Starachowice
75%
Draw or Star Starachowice
70%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
12%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
70%
Lewart 2+ goals
34%
Lewart 3+ goals
12%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
79%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
46%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
40%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lewart scores more
30%
level
25%
Star Starachowice scores more
45%

Star Starachowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 0–6 Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice beat Lewart 6-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.