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Lewart vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
2 – 2
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart41%
×Draw24%
Sokół Sieniawa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.60
Sokół Sieniawa
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
65%
Lewart or Sokół Sieniawa
76%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
59%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
20%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
80%
Lewart 2+ goals
47%
Lewart 3+ goals
22%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
43%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
53%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lewart scores more
41%
level
24%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
35%

Lewart at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 2–2 Sokół Sieniawa

Lewart and Sokół Sieniawa drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.