Lewart 0–1 Podhale Nowy Targ: Result & Stats

Lewart

FT

0 – 1

Podhale Nowy Targ

8/2/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart32%

×Draw25%

Podhale Nowy Targ43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LewartExpected goals in this matchPodhale Nowy Targ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.54

Lewart

1.31

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.54

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 86 away

1.14

creates per match

1.38

1.70

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Lewart

1.14

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.38

allows per match

Lewart

1.70

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lewart or draw

57%

Lewart or Podhale Nowy Targ

75%

Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ

68%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+

14%

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals

73%

Lewart 2+ goals

38%

Lewart 3+ goals

14%

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

79%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

45%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)

43%

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lewart scores more

32%

level

25%

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

43%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff