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Lewart vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
3 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
4/18/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart38%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.51
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
62%
Lewart or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
62%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
18%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
78%
Lewart 2+ goals
44%
Lewart 3+ goals
19%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
78%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
44%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
50%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lewart scores more
38%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
38%

Lewart at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 3–0 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Lewart beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.