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Lewart vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
1 – 1
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart36%
×Draw24%
Korona Kielce II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.50
Korona Kielce II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
60%
Lewart or Korona Kielce II
76%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
64%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
17%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
78%
Lewart 2+ goals
44%
Lewart 3+ goals
19%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
79%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
47%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
48%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lewart scores more
36%
level
24%
Korona Kielce II scores more
40%

Korona Kielce II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 1–1 Korona Kielce II

Lewart and Korona Kielce II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.