Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lewart vs Hetman Zamosc — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
4 – 1
Hetman Zamosc
Hetman Zamosc
6/5/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 40Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lewart68%
×Draw17%
Hetman Zamosc16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
2.72
Hetman Zamosc
1.25

Lewart creates 118% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Hetman Zamosc
0.80

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Hetman Zamosc
4.30

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Hetman Zamosc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
84%
Lewart or Hetman Zamosc
83%
Draw or Hetman Zamosc
32%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
47%
Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
93%
Lewart 2+ goals
75%
Lewart 3+ goals
50%
Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals
71%
Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals
36%
Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
81%
Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.72

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lewart scores more
68%
level
17%
Hetman Zamosc scores more
16%

Lewart at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 4–1 Hetman Zamosc

Lewart beat Hetman Zamosc 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.