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Lewart vs Cracovia Kraków II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
1 – 1
Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
9/13/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart34%
×Draw24%
Cracovia Kraków II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.40
Cracovia Kraków II
1.56

Cracovia Kraków II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Cracovia Kraków II
1.42

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Cracovia Kraków II
1.66

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Cracovia Kraków II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
59%
Lewart or Cracovia Kraków II
76%
Draw or Cracovia Kraków II
66%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
16%
Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
75%
Lewart 2+ goals
41%
Lewart 3+ goals
17%
Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
79%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
46%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
45%
Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Cracovia Kraków II away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.42 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lewart scores more
34%
level
24%
Cracovia Kraków II scores more
41%

Cracovia Kraków II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 1–1 Cracovia Kraków II

Lewart and Cracovia Kraków II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.